SPECPOL
Topic A: Syrian civil war
I. Statement of the Problem
In March 2011, Syria’s government, led by Pres. Bashar al-Assad, faced an unprecedented challenge to its authority when pro-democracy protests erupted throughout the country. Protesters demanded an end to the authoritarian practices of the Assad regime since Assad’s father, Ḥafiz al-Assad, became president in 1971. The Syrian government suppressed demonstrations with violence, making extensive use of police, military, and paramilitary forces. Amateur footage and eyewitness accounts, the primary sources of information in a country largely close to foreign journalists, showed the Syrian security forces beating and killing protesters and firing indiscriminately into crowds. Opposition militias began to form in 2011, and by 2012 the conflict had expanded into a full-fledged civil war.
According to the United Nations, the death toll surpassed 100,000 in June 2013, and reached 120,000 by September 2013. In addition, tens of thousands of protesters, students, liberal activists and human rights advocates have been imprisoned and there are reports of widespread torture and terror in state prisons. International organizations have accused both government and opposition forces of severe human rights violations. The UN and Amnesty International's inspections and probes in Syria determined both in 2012 and 2013 that the vast majority of abuses are done by the Syrian government, whose are also largest in scale. The severity of the humanitarian disaster in Syria has been outlined by UN and many international organizations. More than four million Syrians have been displaced, more than three million Syrians fled the country and became refugees, and millions more were left in poor living conditions with shortage of food and drinking water. The situation is especially bad in the town of Muadamiyat al-Sham, where 12,000 residents are predicted to die of starvation by the winter of 2013 from a Syrian army enforced blockade.
Chemical weapons have also been used in Syria on more than one occasion, triggering strong international reactions.
In March 2011, Syria’s government, led by Pres. Bashar al-Assad, faced an unprecedented challenge to its authority when pro-democracy protests erupted throughout the country. Protesters demanded an end to the authoritarian practices of the Assad regime since Assad’s father, Ḥafiz al-Assad, became president in 1971. The Syrian government suppressed demonstrations with violence, making extensive use of police, military, and paramilitary forces. Amateur footage and eyewitness accounts, the primary sources of information in a country largely close to foreign journalists, showed the Syrian security forces beating and killing protesters and firing indiscriminately into crowds. Opposition militias began to form in 2011, and by 2012 the conflict had expanded into a full-fledged civil war.
According to the United Nations, the death toll surpassed 100,000 in June 2013, and reached 120,000 by September 2013. In addition, tens of thousands of protesters, students, liberal activists and human rights advocates have been imprisoned and there are reports of widespread torture and terror in state prisons. International organizations have accused both government and opposition forces of severe human rights violations. The UN and Amnesty International's inspections and probes in Syria determined both in 2012 and 2013 that the vast majority of abuses are done by the Syrian government, whose are also largest in scale. The severity of the humanitarian disaster in Syria has been outlined by UN and many international organizations. More than four million Syrians have been displaced, more than three million Syrians fled the country and became refugees, and millions more were left in poor living conditions with shortage of food and drinking water. The situation is especially bad in the town of Muadamiyat al-Sham, where 12,000 residents are predicted to die of starvation by the winter of 2013 from a Syrian army enforced blockade.
Chemical weapons have also been used in Syria on more than one occasion, triggering strong international reactions.
Il. History and discussion
a. Assad government
Dating back to 1947, the Baathist party has ruled Syria for the vast majority of the country's existence (50 years, to be exact). The modern Ba'ath party is identified as a socialist movement and is currently led by Bashar al-Assad, who came to power after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad.
Although the party has evolved its ideologies throughout its rule, it has maintained significant political power leading into the current civil war.
b. Demographics
The early stages of the Syrian civil war claimed few lives on a daily basis. Later, the average daily rate of casualties climbed to tens and in the last few days the rate alarmingly accelerated to hundreds a day. We shall soon witness the terrible reality of thousands a day, and this is going to happen even before the final downfall of the regime.
It is frightening to think what may happen afterwards. The numbers could be gigantic, beyond and above anything that has ever occurred in the Middle East. Alongside the fatalities, there is a dramatically growing number of refugees, and while it is difficult to come up with exact figures, it is highly likely that the number is well in excess of half a million and counting. The main concentrations are in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, and a new phenomenon is that many Syrian refugees fled back to Iraq because of the horrors of the Iraqi sectarian conflict. Even the traditional enemy of Syria, Israel, is bracing itself for a possible flood of refugees, though the chances of that happening are really slim.
c. Human rights
The Syrian regime has responded to these largely peaceful demonstrations with harsh repression, giving rise to accusations that the Syrian government’s brutal tactics, including systematic torture, indiscriminate killing and arbitrary detentions, constitute crimes against humanity. Given the Syrian government’s foreign media blackout and its repressive policies, independent reporting on conditions inside Syria has been difficult to obtain. Nonetheless, based on eyewitness accounts, YouTube videos and reporting from local Syrian human rights groups, international human rights organizations estimate that more than 1,400 Syrians have been killed and more than 10,000 arrested over the past four months. Victims are typically unarmed civilians, including women and children. In addition, conscripts who refuse to fire on civilians have also been killed, according to reports from army defectors.
d. Arab Spring
The 2011 Arab Spring activism in Egypt and Tunisia inspired Syrian protesters to take to the streets in demonstrations against Assad's regime. Syrians voiced their unhappiness with the stagnant political process and were advocating for democratic reforms.
These protests did not go over well with the government, which responded with
extreme measures including the kidnapping, torture and killing of protesters. Government troops began opening fire on civilians, who fired back in response.
Civilian rebel forces then began organizing and arming themselves to combat government violence, which led to government military powers destroying entire neighborhoods and towns. Combined, the rising tensions between the two groups created the current state of civil war.
e. Refugees
More than 2.5 million Syrians have fled their homes since the outbreak of civil war in March 2011, taking refuge in neighboring countries or within Syria itself. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 600,000 have fled to immediate neighbors, including Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. Yet the real number of Syrians refugees in these countries is much higher – perhaps double UNHCR statistics, which only record those officially registered as refugees.
Turkey is erecting new refugee camps to accommodate the growing number of Christians fleeing the Syrian civil war. Turkey has seen an influx of 250,000-400,000 Syrian refugees, the majority of whom are from Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority. But a growing number of Syria’s minority groups, including Christians and Kurds, are fleeing as well.
The influx of Syrians escaping civil war has increased Lebanon's population from 4 million to 5 million in the space of a few years. Almost one in five residents in Lebanon is now a refugee. Nowadays, Lebanon does not want the new round of refugees to stay, so it is refusing to allow Syrians to build permanent structures to live in. Nonetheless , these Syrians still try to blend into the local population, or live in tents dotted around the Lebanese countryside. For Jordan, they want to avoid being drawn further into Syria's civil war and it is part of efforts by the United States and Russia to find a political solution to a conflict that has already killed more than 100,000 people.
Iraq has been shaken by its worst wave of violence in the last five years. The United Nations has warned that the sectarian bloodshed in Iraq and the civil war in neighboring Syria are merging into one conflict.
f. Human rights violations
The current unrest in Syria is a clear violation of human rights in the country. The city of Homs seems to be caught in intense assault from the rebels and the opposition. Human shields, sometimes young male children, are also being used by security forces to advance into the opposition’s territory. There are even reports that
claim around 28,000 people have disappeared in Syria mainly due to abductions by the militia. A deliberate strategy to terrorize families seems to be the motive behind these abductions. Fears for their safety and hope for truce are evident from the families of disappeared people.
The UN-appointed panel and its head now fear the presence of Islamic radicals, who are trying to increase ethnic tensions amongst the fighting parties. Brazilian professor, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, warned that these militants were utilizing the existing conflict for their own agendas. The presence of such foreign militants will only exaggerate the war and increase the death tolls in the region.
Furthermore, the number of refugees fleeing the country has increased dramatically, not just due to war but also owing to the lack of water, food, fuel and other necessary supplies. Karen AbuZayd, a fellow member of the commission, has said that there is no sign of any code of conduct being followed by the militia, and approximately 590,000 buildings have been destroyed during this war, rendering thousands homeless. There are also many reports of bombing along border lines, assault on women and attack on journalists during this war.
g. Chemical weapons
Recent allegations of the government's chemical weapon use on civilians have prompted the international community to contemplate serious intervention, but that doesn't mean the conflict has been limited to the Syrian population exclusively.
h. Volunteer rebel fighters
Volunteer rebel fighters from various Middle Eastern countries have joined Syrian rebels in their cause. Some of these foreign fighters joined the action because they want Syria to undergo democratic, political change; others joined because of their personal religious opposition to Assad's secular regime.
a. Assad government
Dating back to 1947, the Baathist party has ruled Syria for the vast majority of the country's existence (50 years, to be exact). The modern Ba'ath party is identified as a socialist movement and is currently led by Bashar al-Assad, who came to power after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad.
Although the party has evolved its ideologies throughout its rule, it has maintained significant political power leading into the current civil war.
b. Demographics
The early stages of the Syrian civil war claimed few lives on a daily basis. Later, the average daily rate of casualties climbed to tens and in the last few days the rate alarmingly accelerated to hundreds a day. We shall soon witness the terrible reality of thousands a day, and this is going to happen even before the final downfall of the regime.
It is frightening to think what may happen afterwards. The numbers could be gigantic, beyond and above anything that has ever occurred in the Middle East. Alongside the fatalities, there is a dramatically growing number of refugees, and while it is difficult to come up with exact figures, it is highly likely that the number is well in excess of half a million and counting. The main concentrations are in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, and a new phenomenon is that many Syrian refugees fled back to Iraq because of the horrors of the Iraqi sectarian conflict. Even the traditional enemy of Syria, Israel, is bracing itself for a possible flood of refugees, though the chances of that happening are really slim.
c. Human rights
The Syrian regime has responded to these largely peaceful demonstrations with harsh repression, giving rise to accusations that the Syrian government’s brutal tactics, including systematic torture, indiscriminate killing and arbitrary detentions, constitute crimes against humanity. Given the Syrian government’s foreign media blackout and its repressive policies, independent reporting on conditions inside Syria has been difficult to obtain. Nonetheless, based on eyewitness accounts, YouTube videos and reporting from local Syrian human rights groups, international human rights organizations estimate that more than 1,400 Syrians have been killed and more than 10,000 arrested over the past four months. Victims are typically unarmed civilians, including women and children. In addition, conscripts who refuse to fire on civilians have also been killed, according to reports from army defectors.
d. Arab Spring
The 2011 Arab Spring activism in Egypt and Tunisia inspired Syrian protesters to take to the streets in demonstrations against Assad's regime. Syrians voiced their unhappiness with the stagnant political process and were advocating for democratic reforms.
These protests did not go over well with the government, which responded with
extreme measures including the kidnapping, torture and killing of protesters. Government troops began opening fire on civilians, who fired back in response.
Civilian rebel forces then began organizing and arming themselves to combat government violence, which led to government military powers destroying entire neighborhoods and towns. Combined, the rising tensions between the two groups created the current state of civil war.
e. Refugees
More than 2.5 million Syrians have fled their homes since the outbreak of civil war in March 2011, taking refuge in neighboring countries or within Syria itself. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 600,000 have fled to immediate neighbors, including Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. Yet the real number of Syrians refugees in these countries is much higher – perhaps double UNHCR statistics, which only record those officially registered as refugees.
Turkey is erecting new refugee camps to accommodate the growing number of Christians fleeing the Syrian civil war. Turkey has seen an influx of 250,000-400,000 Syrian refugees, the majority of whom are from Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority. But a growing number of Syria’s minority groups, including Christians and Kurds, are fleeing as well.
The influx of Syrians escaping civil war has increased Lebanon's population from 4 million to 5 million in the space of a few years. Almost one in five residents in Lebanon is now a refugee. Nowadays, Lebanon does not want the new round of refugees to stay, so it is refusing to allow Syrians to build permanent structures to live in. Nonetheless , these Syrians still try to blend into the local population, or live in tents dotted around the Lebanese countryside. For Jordan, they want to avoid being drawn further into Syria's civil war and it is part of efforts by the United States and Russia to find a political solution to a conflict that has already killed more than 100,000 people.
Iraq has been shaken by its worst wave of violence in the last five years. The United Nations has warned that the sectarian bloodshed in Iraq and the civil war in neighboring Syria are merging into one conflict.
f. Human rights violations
The current unrest in Syria is a clear violation of human rights in the country. The city of Homs seems to be caught in intense assault from the rebels and the opposition. Human shields, sometimes young male children, are also being used by security forces to advance into the opposition’s territory. There are even reports that
claim around 28,000 people have disappeared in Syria mainly due to abductions by the militia. A deliberate strategy to terrorize families seems to be the motive behind these abductions. Fears for their safety and hope for truce are evident from the families of disappeared people.
The UN-appointed panel and its head now fear the presence of Islamic radicals, who are trying to increase ethnic tensions amongst the fighting parties. Brazilian professor, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, warned that these militants were utilizing the existing conflict for their own agendas. The presence of such foreign militants will only exaggerate the war and increase the death tolls in the region.
Furthermore, the number of refugees fleeing the country has increased dramatically, not just due to war but also owing to the lack of water, food, fuel and other necessary supplies. Karen AbuZayd, a fellow member of the commission, has said that there is no sign of any code of conduct being followed by the militia, and approximately 590,000 buildings have been destroyed during this war, rendering thousands homeless. There are also many reports of bombing along border lines, assault on women and attack on journalists during this war.
g. Chemical weapons
Recent allegations of the government's chemical weapon use on civilians have prompted the international community to contemplate serious intervention, but that doesn't mean the conflict has been limited to the Syrian population exclusively.
h. Volunteer rebel fighters
Volunteer rebel fighters from various Middle Eastern countries have joined Syrian rebels in their cause. Some of these foreign fighters joined the action because they want Syria to undergo democratic, political change; others joined because of their personal religious opposition to Assad's secular regime.
Ill. Past Actions
International talks to find a political solution to the three-year Syrian conflict are under way in Switzerland. For months, United Nations (UN), US and Russian diplomats have struggled to get both sides to attend "Geneva II".
The Syria peace conference has been more than a year in the making. Plans to organise talks gained momentum after a chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of Damascus which killed hundreds of people last August. In May 2013, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to try to "bring both sides to the table" to end the bloodshed. Mr. Kerry said the alternative was that Syria "heads closer to an abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos". However, initialattempts to convene a conference failed.
Their initiative gained greater impetus after a chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of Damascus killed hundreds of people on 21 August 2013. On 27 September, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2118, which demanded the destruction or removal of Syria's chemical stockpile by mid-2014.
It also called for the "convening, as soon as possible, of an international conference on Syria to implement the Geneva Communique", and for "all Syrian parties to engage seriously and constructively" and be committed to the "achievement of stability and reconciliation".
International talks to find a political solution to the three-year Syrian conflict are under way in Switzerland. For months, United Nations (UN), US and Russian diplomats have struggled to get both sides to attend "Geneva II".
The Syria peace conference has been more than a year in the making. Plans to organise talks gained momentum after a chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of Damascus which killed hundreds of people last August. In May 2013, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to try to "bring both sides to the table" to end the bloodshed. Mr. Kerry said the alternative was that Syria "heads closer to an abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos". However, initialattempts to convene a conference failed.
Their initiative gained greater impetus after a chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of Damascus killed hundreds of people on 21 August 2013. On 27 September, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2118, which demanded the destruction or removal of Syria's chemical stockpile by mid-2014.
It also called for the "convening, as soon as possible, of an international conference on Syria to implement the Geneva Communique", and for "all Syrian parties to engage seriously and constructively" and be committed to the "achievement of stability and reconciliation".
IV. Case study
US
On 10 September, US President Barack Obama postponed a Congress vote on military action in Syria, vowing instead to pursue diplomacy to remove the regime's chemical weapons.
His decision was prompted by a Russian proposal on the eve of the vote for Damascus to place its entire chemical weapons stockpile under international control. The Russian initiative came off the back of an apparently off-the-cuff suggestion by the US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has since appeared on Russian TV to voice his support for the plan - but he insisted the move was not the result of the threat of US military action.
The crisis escalated in August over the suspected chemical attack in the Ghouta area of Syria's capital Damascus, which left hundreds dead. Secretary of State John Kerry was the first US official to publicly hold the Syrian government responsible, calling the attack "undeniable" and a "moral obscenity".
President Barack Obama had called on Congress to authorize US military action in Syria in a vote.
Internationally, Mr. Obama tried to garner support among leaders at the G20 meeting in St Petersburg. At the summit, he argued action was required even when the UN Security Council was paralyzed, as the international consensus against the use of chemical weapons had to be upheld.
Ten members of the G20 joined the US in a joint statement accusing the Syrian government of carrying out the attack and calling for a strong international response against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Russia
Russia announced its proposal for dealing with the escalating chemical weapons crisis on 9 September, as the US Congress was preparing to vote on
whether to back President Barack Obama's moves to strike Syria. Mr. Putin has described the plan as "a new opportunity to avoid military action".
Russia is one of Mr. Assad's most important international backers and has warned the US and its allies against taking one-sided action against Syria.
In an opinion piece published by the New York Times, President Vladimir Putin said "a strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism".
On 4 September, Mr. Putin said he did not "exclude" the possibility of Russia supporting a UN Security Council resolution authorizing force if it was proved "beyond doubt" that Mr. Assad used chemical weapons against his own people.
Russian officials maintain the Syrian rebel forces were behind the chemical weapon attack, describing it as "a provocation on the part of the militants who are expecting to get support from outside".
Israel
The Israeli government has refrained from commenting publicly on whether or not it supports US strikes on Syria, wanting to avoid being connected to such action should it take place. Any backing by Israel could be seen in the Arab world as evidence of collusion in US decision-making, and turns public opinion in the region against military intervention. Israel also wants to avoid giving reason to Hezbollah, Syria's and Iran's militant Shia Islamist ally in Lebanon, to attack it, ostensibly in retaliation for a US strike on Syria.
Israel sees the US approach to a possible strike on Syria as a sign of how far it will go to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions. There is great concern in Israel that President Obama's decision to seek authorization from Congress will be perceived in the region as a sign of weakness, especially by Iran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Damascus and its allies against trying to draw Israel into the Syrian conflict, saying on 27 August: "We are not part of the civil war in Syria, but if we detect any attempt to harm us we will respond, and do so powerfully."
US
On 10 September, US President Barack Obama postponed a Congress vote on military action in Syria, vowing instead to pursue diplomacy to remove the regime's chemical weapons.
His decision was prompted by a Russian proposal on the eve of the vote for Damascus to place its entire chemical weapons stockpile under international control. The Russian initiative came off the back of an apparently off-the-cuff suggestion by the US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has since appeared on Russian TV to voice his support for the plan - but he insisted the move was not the result of the threat of US military action.
The crisis escalated in August over the suspected chemical attack in the Ghouta area of Syria's capital Damascus, which left hundreds dead. Secretary of State John Kerry was the first US official to publicly hold the Syrian government responsible, calling the attack "undeniable" and a "moral obscenity".
President Barack Obama had called on Congress to authorize US military action in Syria in a vote.
Internationally, Mr. Obama tried to garner support among leaders at the G20 meeting in St Petersburg. At the summit, he argued action was required even when the UN Security Council was paralyzed, as the international consensus against the use of chemical weapons had to be upheld.
Ten members of the G20 joined the US in a joint statement accusing the Syrian government of carrying out the attack and calling for a strong international response against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Russia
Russia announced its proposal for dealing with the escalating chemical weapons crisis on 9 September, as the US Congress was preparing to vote on
whether to back President Barack Obama's moves to strike Syria. Mr. Putin has described the plan as "a new opportunity to avoid military action".
Russia is one of Mr. Assad's most important international backers and has warned the US and its allies against taking one-sided action against Syria.
In an opinion piece published by the New York Times, President Vladimir Putin said "a strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism".
On 4 September, Mr. Putin said he did not "exclude" the possibility of Russia supporting a UN Security Council resolution authorizing force if it was proved "beyond doubt" that Mr. Assad used chemical weapons against his own people.
Russian officials maintain the Syrian rebel forces were behind the chemical weapon attack, describing it as "a provocation on the part of the militants who are expecting to get support from outside".
Israel
The Israeli government has refrained from commenting publicly on whether or not it supports US strikes on Syria, wanting to avoid being connected to such action should it take place. Any backing by Israel could be seen in the Arab world as evidence of collusion in US decision-making, and turns public opinion in the region against military intervention. Israel also wants to avoid giving reason to Hezbollah, Syria's and Iran's militant Shia Islamist ally in Lebanon, to attack it, ostensibly in retaliation for a US strike on Syria.
Israel sees the US approach to a possible strike on Syria as a sign of how far it will go to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions. There is great concern in Israel that President Obama's decision to seek authorization from Congress will be perceived in the region as a sign of weakness, especially by Iran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Damascus and its allies against trying to draw Israel into the Syrian conflict, saying on 27 August: "We are not part of the civil war in Syria, but if we detect any attempt to harm us we will respond, and do so powerfully."
V. Possible Scenarios and Solutions
A solution must derive from three ‘arenas’, which in order of size are the Syrian arena, the Arab arena and finally the international arena, all of which, including the regime itself, agree on the central issue: that the country cannot return to its pre-uprising state. In other words, change is inevitable. In the Syrian arena, there are three possible, maybe only theoretical, scenarios:
The first scenario is that the regime’s security policy proves successful and it manages to quash the uprising before implementing a package of reforms – and in some cases new laws – that enable it to regain control of the country. It has to be said that, though hypothetically possible, this seems unlikely to transpire. The regime is utterly bankrupt. It has lost every shred of its legitimacy and is only able to maintain its unity thanks to an oppressive use of its security and military forces.
The second scenario is that the uprising manages to topple the regime. However, a rational appraisal of the current balance of power in the country does not support such a conclusion and it only seems likely in the event of outside intervention or some seismic internal change, for instance the whole-scale abandonment of the regime by the armed forces or a palace coup of some kind. Neither of these scenarios is certain at present. Alternatively, we may see an intervention by an Arab or international military force or an escalation of outside pressure that makes the regime’s position untenable.
The third scenario is a settlement reached by negotiation between representatives of the popular movement and the regime. The regime, however, persists with its repressive tactics and seems unwilling to seriously consider the possibility of negotiating with anybody except its own puppet ‘opposition’. The revolutionaries on the ground, meanwhile, utterly reject the possibility of entering into dialogue with the regime and the official political opposition remains divided on the issue. For all these reasons, such an outcome seems unlikely.
A solution must derive from three ‘arenas’, which in order of size are the Syrian arena, the Arab arena and finally the international arena, all of which, including the regime itself, agree on the central issue: that the country cannot return to its pre-uprising state. In other words, change is inevitable. In the Syrian arena, there are three possible, maybe only theoretical, scenarios:
The first scenario is that the regime’s security policy proves successful and it manages to quash the uprising before implementing a package of reforms – and in some cases new laws – that enable it to regain control of the country. It has to be said that, though hypothetically possible, this seems unlikely to transpire. The regime is utterly bankrupt. It has lost every shred of its legitimacy and is only able to maintain its unity thanks to an oppressive use of its security and military forces.
The second scenario is that the uprising manages to topple the regime. However, a rational appraisal of the current balance of power in the country does not support such a conclusion and it only seems likely in the event of outside intervention or some seismic internal change, for instance the whole-scale abandonment of the regime by the armed forces or a palace coup of some kind. Neither of these scenarios is certain at present. Alternatively, we may see an intervention by an Arab or international military force or an escalation of outside pressure that makes the regime’s position untenable.
The third scenario is a settlement reached by negotiation between representatives of the popular movement and the regime. The regime, however, persists with its repressive tactics and seems unwilling to seriously consider the possibility of negotiating with anybody except its own puppet ‘opposition’. The revolutionaries on the ground, meanwhile, utterly reject the possibility of entering into dialogue with the regime and the official political opposition remains divided on the issue. For all these reasons, such an outcome seems unlikely.
VI Questions to consider
1. If the U.S. did intervene, is there a plan? What would the targets be?
2. Why are some members of Congress so angry at President Obama?
3. What is the Geneva II conference on Syria?
4. How have the Syrian government and opposition reacted?
5. What do the countries in favor of carrying out an intervention in Syria stand to gain from doing so?
1. If the U.S. did intervene, is there a plan? What would the targets be?
2. Why are some members of Congress so angry at President Obama?
3. What is the Geneva II conference on Syria?
4. How have the Syrian government and opposition reacted?
5. What do the countries in favor of carrying out an intervention in Syria stand to gain from doing so?
VlI Reference
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/syrianhttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/06/syria-is-in-a-civil-war-says-un-clinton-says-solution-must-be-political/-civil-war/story?id=20112311
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/syrian-civil-war-demographics_b_1833672.html
http://www.hrw.org/node/119645/section/12
http://www.hrw.org/node/122269
http://www.usip.org/publications/human-rights-in-syria
http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocusRel.asp?infocusID=146
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/The_Newest_Syrian_Problem
http://justpeacemaking.org/if-gas-is-the-problem-in-syria/
http://crs.org/syria/index.cfm?utm_campaign=syria&utm_source=bing&utm_content=syria&utm_medium=cpc
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25755987
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23849587
http://www.arableagueonline.org/human-rights-violations-in-the-syrian-war/
http://syrianrefugees.eu/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-23/syrian-civil-war-creating-refugee-crisis-in-lebanon/5171920
http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/04/11/turkey-erects-refugee-camps-for-fleeing-syrian-christians/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/04/putin-warns-military-action-syria
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24628442
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/syrianhttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/06/syria-is-in-a-civil-war-says-un-clinton-says-solution-must-be-political/-civil-war/story?id=20112311
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/syrian-civil-war-demographics_b_1833672.html
http://www.hrw.org/node/119645/section/12
http://www.hrw.org/node/122269
http://www.usip.org/publications/human-rights-in-syria
http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocusRel.asp?infocusID=146
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/The_Newest_Syrian_Problem
http://justpeacemaking.org/if-gas-is-the-problem-in-syria/
http://crs.org/syria/index.cfm?utm_campaign=syria&utm_source=bing&utm_content=syria&utm_medium=cpc
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25755987
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23849587
http://www.arableagueonline.org/human-rights-violations-in-the-syrian-war/
http://syrianrefugees.eu/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-23/syrian-civil-war-creating-refugee-crisis-in-lebanon/5171920
http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/04/11/turkey-erects-refugee-camps-for-fleeing-syrian-christians/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/04/putin-warns-military-action-syria
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24628442